Parsing Mark Penn's Polling Memo and addressing Hillary Clinton's has-been campaign. Mark, you have tried as hard as you could. I can't believe how you continue to do it. If you want some reasons to escape, consider the following responses to your recent wishful thinking.This post consists of the Penn Memo blockquoted with observations interspersed.
To: Interested PartiesFrom: Mark Penn, Chief StrategistDate: Thursday, March 20, 2008Re: Polling Memo - The Shift to HillaryThere are some pretty big changes happening out there with the voters. Barack Obama recently declared himself the frontrunner in the race, although there are 10 contests remaining and MI and FL have not yet been decided. Seems to me that things have gone my way on this. I have never been for a re-vote. I have been for a negotiated settlement that fairly decides the disposition of these imperfect primaries. My guess is that delegates will be seated and denied a first ballot vote as a penalty and then freed to vote as they wish. The decision will be made prior to the Convention so the point will be moot.But a look at the polls shows that Sen. Obama’s lead nationally with Democrats has been evaporating. The Gallup daily tracking poll shows Hillary leading Sen. Obama among Democrats by 7 points, and the latest Zogby/Reuters poll has Sen. Obama’s lead down from 14 points last month to just 3 points now. This suggests a strong swing in momentum in the race to Hillary since the Texas and Ohio primaries earlier this month.
No question that recent events threw Barack for a loop. With the aid of FOX wall to wall vitriol and spins from you guys supported by the MSM, the polls have wavered. Evaporation would be the case if Barack were going to, er, evaporate. In your dreams Mark. Obama is going with the substance of this blog. Read this blog Mark and give me a bit of credit for being right. The more that the voters learn about Barack Obama, the more his ability to beat John McCain is declining compared to Hillary. For a long time we have explained that poll numbers for a candidate who has not yet been vetted or tested are not firm numbers, and we are beginning to see that clearly. Just a month ago, the Obama campaign claimed that the polls showed Barack Obama doing better than Hillary against Sen. McCain. Now such numbers are a lot harder to find.
You are ignoring the basic reality Mark. If there were no Barack, you might have a point. But Barack is getting rave reviews for his Tuesday speech and plaudits for his two succeeding speeches and if he does not win the nomination there will be hell to pay and you guys will be sitting in the villain's chair. So much for a Hillary victory. The only thing you can do now is try to spoil Barack. I think the electorate and the superdelegates know how to read the leaves. We have learned a great deal about Barack. We have learned more than we need to about Hillary. Sadly, under your tutelage, she has deteriorated without the aid of having HER religious affiliations exposed. It isn't worth it. Don't worry.In the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, Hillary leads John McCain by 5 points (Hillary 51 / McCain 46) while Sen. Obama is only 2 points ahead of Sen. McCain (Obama 49 / McCain 47). This is a reversal from February, when Sen. McCain led Hillary by 4 points. The latest CNN poll also shows that Hillary leads Sen. McCain by a bigger margin than Barack Obama.
These reversals are nothing Mark. You are a pollster and you know better. Barack could start out, as our nominee, 40 points below McCain and still win in November. I think the reality we are dealing with is that either Barack or Hillary can beat McCain, which just makes defeat more bitter. If you really believe Barack is self-destructing, quit and wait four years.
In several key states, Hillary is a stronger general election candidate than Barack Obama against John McCain. For example, the latest Survey USA poll has Hillary leading Sen. McCain by 6 points in Ohio while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 7 points. In Kentucky, Hillary’s margin against Sen. McCain is 26 points better than Barack Obama’s. In Missouri, Sen. Obama lags John McCain by 14 points while Hillary comes within 2 points of Sen. McCain. In Florida, the latest PPP poll shows Barack Obama losing to John McCain by 11 points while Hillary comes within 4 points of Sen. McCain. Last week's University of Central Arkansas poll showed Hillary leading Sen. Sen. McCain by 15 points in that state while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 16 points. And the latest Rasmussen poll showed Hillary leading Sen. McCain by 11 points in New Jersey while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 2 points.See the comments above. Moreover, 24 percent of Florida Democrats say that if Florida's delegates are not counted at the Democratic convention in August, they are less likely to vote for a Democrat in November, according to the latest St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll. Since Florida is the single largest and most important swing state in the country and nearly 1.8 million Florida Democrats voted in the January primary, Democrats must find a solution to allow Florida's delegates to count if we are to have any hope of winning in November.
Mark, take a look at my Electoral College game. I have already given Florida to the Republicans. Obama wins without it. This is as speculative as my game is. I just think I have it more right than you do. The Florida solution will seat the delegation with a little tilt toward HC and no vote the first ballot.
FOX is not a news channel. It is a propaganda mill. It engages in search and destroy missions. And it is apparently hospitable to influences that are vastly more alarming and noxious than the wall-to-wall soundbites they have been playing of the Rev. Wright. See my note on Sean Hannity and Hal Turner below.I have no idea whether, by calling its propaganda news, FOX exposes itself to any FCC regulation. Certainly if the requirement were honesty, there would be cause to lift its license.The foregoing was written as a simple reaction to the following from the Obama Blog. I should mention as a veteran of innumerable forums since before Al Gore invented the Internet, the Obama Blog and its thousands of comment-makers has an almost unbelievable degree of civility. So Fox News evidently decided to pore through our millions of user-created pages on My.BarackObama.com and put a screenshot of inflammatory content on the front page of FoxNews.com.You see, more than 700,000 people have created accounts on the system. You can create one right now if you choose, in about a minute -- anyone can.Now, from time to time people get up to no good -- creating fake profiles (like one for Sean Hannity created today), or posting profane or inappropriate content. When they do, the community reports the offending content and if it violates our terms of service it is removed (as the Sean Hannity profile was).My.BarackObama.com has been at the core of our bottom-up organizing strategy. The tools available have been put to work by a community of supporters that is bigger and more powerful than anything presidential politics has ever seen.Evidently, Fox News didn't think it was a big deal that hundreds of thousands of ordinary Americans are participating in the democratic process creating groups and local events in communities all across the country.But they did think it was a big deal that one random person on the Internet, without the knowledge of the Obama campaign, posted a profile in the system with the image of the New Black Panther Party on it.When we were alerted of the existence of this page, we pulled it down. Yet even after we pulled the page, Fox News continues to disingenuously and prominently feature this "story" on their homepage.If you have feedback for Fox News, you can email foxnewsonline@foxnews.com.
Everyone errs when they say Barack has to get BEYOND the race issue. What he needs to do is keep including it by spelling out the political advantages to ALL of UNITY. Unity means that the low income person or family of any race, color, gender, persuasion needs to be united with his or her opposites, his or her scapegoats, his or her enemies, in order to test the waters against the real problem. The folk who are making money hand over fist do not want this unity. They will contribute millions of dollars to see that this unity does not take place. This is the bull that Barack took by the horns yesterday and to frame the story in terms of getting BY the race issue is is simply a pipe dream.Give this a month folks. Let Barack get out there and reiterate as he is always able to do. Let him unify his own speaking to include the 65 percent presidency that David Wilhelm spoke about when he came aboard.The race is OURS to win. Therefore it is ours to lose. We are not going to do that. Hillary is looking tired, but I am not deceived. She rebounds. Where are we now. We are poised to TIE the number of superdelegates Hillary has. A tipping point.We are poised to make some serious decisions about how important Pennsylvania is. The only decision can be that it is is desperately important. If we lose we cannot have a rout. If we can win we need to win because that would end it.So:Barack will have made three speeches by the end of the day tomorrow. Race, Iraq and the Economy. These will become the fodder for a renewed stump speech that is going to move the campaign into the realm of common interests, common rewards, common victory.If he can do that then where we are is where we have been for several months -- on the verge of victory, but not there yet.Send a Personal Email to Stephen C. Rose
The Reverend Wright issue has done major damage and Public Policy Polling ran a bunch of polls right in the middle of the worst sound bite tsunami. I think it can be said that Barack WON the 3:00 AM war. He did so by fighting back intensely. It remains to be seen if, by continuing on the offensive, he can finally overcome the effects of the Wright barrage.I post this here to underline the serious crisis the campaign faces. We are entering the decisive phase.Since Pennsylvania is at the center, I am christening Barack ROCKY and suggesting the campaign take its cues from the hero of that seminal film. Other polls can be found on my polls page.Democratic Tracking Poll: PresidentBarack Obama 44Hillary Clinton 43The Jeremiah Wright controversy has hurt Barack Obama in recent PPP polls in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania and North Carolina is no different. Clinton is the closest she's been to Obama in the state since John Edwards dropped out of the race.Clinton actually leads among Democrats in the poll, 44-43. But Obama has the overall lead based on a very strong performance with unaffiliated voters, with whom he has a 53-35 advantage.The rules for voting in the North Carolina primary probably work to Clinton's advantage. Obama has done very well in states with open primaries because of his strong support from Republican and independent voters. But North Carolina has a closed primary with the exception of unaffiliated voters, who may choose which party's ballot they want to cast. Right now they're only making up 12% of the Democratic primary electorate.The biggest movement in Clinton's direction since PPP's poll two weeks ago is among female voters. Obama led them by 4 in the last survey, Clinton now has a 2 point advantage.Some folks in the national media seem to have written off North Carolina for Obama but it looks like the state could be up for grabs, particularly if Obama can't put his recent bad press behind him quickly.Send a Personal Email to Stephen C. Rose
It's late and I am about ready to hit the hay. I was going to write about Obama in terms of his being a "profile in courage". But I see the New York Times in its Wednesday paper has preempted the title in a laudatory editorial. And to think they endorsed Clinton. You would not believe it to read their praise for Obama's faith, politics and race speech.Today (Wednesday) Obama will speak on Iraq and National Security and on Thursday he will speak on the Economy. That's all I know at this point. I have the feeling that Barack is now taking the campaign to a different level.I only hope that he continues to echo elements of today's speech -- the truth that has always been true:Until the poor and the lower middle class of ALL groups, races, and so forth, get together, the nation will be prey to forces that are literally the Jaws of Hell -- the principalities and powers, the people with whom those in power typically have commerce.Barack will need to deal with these people and forces. But from a position of power. That would be us. That can only be the case if he can cut through the miasmal mist that keeps groups hating and dissing each other and turns it into a powerful majority.Well I am tapped out, so I leave you with this little message. Stay tuned. Barack is back on track and we will win.+And Bill Clinton if you are reading, if you want a real mugging, dare to come and talk to me face to face. I respect you in some ways, sir. But you are lying when you say you did not play a race card in SC. And no one mugged you save your own careless or premeditated words. Come on downtown and dare say it looking me in the eye.Good night.Send a Personal Email to Stephen C. Rose
The Barack Obama Campaign can win in Pennsylvania only if they manage to gain one point a day between now and the April 22 Democratic primary election. Hillary Clinton currently has a 26 point advantage. This is according to Public Policy Polling and I have posted their analysis on my Polls page.We can do it.Barack has this morning set a target than no politician has had the nerve to set -- ever. To move to the next stage of the civil rights revolution, to where white and black begin to join forces to overcome the divisive politics that has consistently managed to slice and dice the electorate and maintain gridlock.Only a 65 percent Presidency can create the political force needed to stand against special interests and force through a radical program that will begin to set in place a better health and educational system and a more prosperous economic program based on attention to the need for a humongous environmental and infrastructure overhaul.Only Barack Obama can move us toward that goal.I fully believe Barack will be the Democratic nominee. But I do not think he will emerge undamaged from the Clinton assault unless we prove that we can achieve a Pennsylvania Miracle.Here is what I believe to be the best way to win Pennsylvania. Send a Personal Email to Stephen C. Rose
Here is the full text as prepared for delivery of Barack Obama's ground-breaking speech on race and politics delivered this morning in Philadelphia.“We the people, in order to form a more perfect union.” Two hundred and twenty one years ago, in a hall that still stands across the street, a group of men gathered and, with these simple words, launched America’s improbable experiment in democracy. Farmers and scholars; statesmen and patriots who had traveled across an ocean to escape tyranny and persecution finally made real their declaration of independence at a Philadelphia convention that lasted through the spring of 1787. The document they produced was eventually signed but ultimately unfinished. It was stained by this nation’s original sin of slavery, a question that divided the colonies and brought the convention to a stalemate until the founders chose to allow the slave trade to continue for at least twenty more years, and to leave any final resolution to future generations. Of course, the answer to the slavery question was already embedded within our Constitution – a Constitution that had at is very core the ideal of equal citizenship under the law; a Constitution that promised its people liberty, and justice, and a union that could be and should be perfected over time. And yet words on a parchment would not be enough to deliver slaves from bondage, or provide men and women of every color and creed their full rights and obligations as citizens of the United States. What would be needed were Americans in successive generations who were willing to do their part – through protests and struggle, on the streets and in the courts, through a civil war and civil disobedience and always at great risk - to narrow that gap between the promise of our ideals and the reality of their time.This was one of the tasks we set forth at the beginning of this campaign – to continue the long march of those who came before us, a march for a more just, more equal, more free, more caring and more prosperous America. I chose to run for the presidency at this moment in history because I believe deeply that we cannot solve the challenges of our time unless we solve them together – unless we perfect our union by understanding that we may have different stories, but we hold common hopes; that we may not look the same and we may not have come from the same place, but we all want to move in the same direction – towards a better future for of children and our grandchildren. This belief comes from my unyielding faith in the decency and generosity of the American people. But it also comes from my own American story. I am the son of a black man from Kenya and a white woman from Kansas. I was raised with the help of a white grandfather who survived a Depression to serve in Patton’s Army during World War II and a white grandmother who worked on a bomber assembly line at Fort Leavenworth while he was overseas. I’ve gone to some of the best schools in America and lived in one of the world’s poorest nations. I am married to a black American who carries within her the blood of slaves and slaveowners – an inheritance we pass on to our two precious daughters. I have brothers, sisters, nieces, nephews, uncles and cousins, of every race and every hue, scattered across three continents, and for as long as I live, I will never forget that in no other country on Earth is my story even possible.
UPDATE: READ BARACK'S ADDRESSPat Buchanan is painting Jeremiah Wright with a completely broad brush, taking the selected and intensely-played sound bites as representing Wright's entire understanding. Pat gets away with that. So much for nuance. I am waiting for Barack's speech and will comment as it proceeds. Sad of you Pat.
UPDATE: Pat will not concede that the statements he is universalizing are specific and not necessarily typical. Still sad. The silver lining is Sally Quinn, wise and accurate. Too bad she is not seen more often.Barack's speech has not started but my email box brings difficult news. Public Policy Polling says that Hillary has expanded her lead in PA to 26 points. I will post the entire poll on my Polls page when this is done. All this says is that the speech must do more than be monumentally influential and Lincolnesque. It must reverse the figures of PPP. I say this because this is the one poll that has never been wrong. Off sometimes by some numbers. But never wrong in SC, WI, TX and OH.Here is Barack.He is pointing to the universal need for struggle to move beyond the causes of anger and resentment. He is getting to the root of the intersection between political opportunism and racism. And he is perhaps making the first historic move to explicitly move beyond it.A racial stalemate we've been stuck in for years. We have no choice if we seek a more perfect union.Conservative self-help was the message at Trinity. The problem was assuming no change was possible.Unity > prosperity for all.Call for doing unto others as we would have done unto us.Then he finally gets to the options -- more FOX and media distraction or addressing the injustices, organizing for change.This time.I wonder what Pat will say now,. But I have work do do. So I will post this as is, Send a Personal Email to Stephen C. Rose
UPDATE: READ BARACK'S ADDRESSBarack Obama's major address on race and his relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright will be delivered in Philadelphia before a small audience of 100. I believe this address will rank above JFK's crucial speech in 1960 in which Kennedy reassured the nation that his Catholicism would have no effect on his capacity to be the Constitutional head of our nation. Here is the JFK speech video.I believe this event will qualify as a Lincolnian moment. We are talking about unearthing and exposing and then moving slowly but surely beyond what Gunnar Myrdal called the American dilemma -- the glaring gap between our exalted ideals and our hellish practice.I will make a very simple point which I believe should be understood by our main stream media MSM. It is that this speech was and is INEVITABLE.No matter how this issue was brought up, the ugly scars of racism are real and persistent. It is a matter of some amazement that its manifestation over the Big Sleep between i968 and now has been widely ignored. When Barack has spoken of what needs to be done, he is talking about the huge change that will need to occur merely to begin realizing the dream that was never even envisioned during the War on Poverty days.Is it too soon?I do not believe so, but the answer hangs in the balance.This morning, despite the FOX-driven sound bite firestorm, Barack remains firmly ahead not only in numbers but in a CNN poll that gives him a seven point edge over Clinton. More and more he is referred to as the presumptive nominee.If I am not mistaken, there will be a BUMP up for Barack following this speech. Insofar as we can see the benefits of a society that slowly and surely, on the basis of conservative as well as liberal principles, on the basis of pragmatic reason, moves beyond the divided past, we can achieve the sea change.I do not believe any of this has happened without reason. In other words I believe what has happened advances the Obama movement. It was predictable. Even the resolute pummeling from the FOX precincts.I will be watching with you.Obama Monday: “I believe in…making policy decisions based on facts and reason and analysis, as opposed to ideology.”He was talking about economy, but watch his race speech to see if he reveals his emotional side along with his rational side. Told reporters Monday in Monaca, Pennsylvania remarks will be on “the larger issue of race in this campaign.”Says he won’t just talk about Rev. Wright, but “how some of these issues are perceived from within the black church issue for example.”Politico: “A successful address would go a long way toward answering Hillary Rodham Clinton’s complaint that Obama has never shown he can handle the rough-and-tumble nature of modern political combat.”As Michelle Obama reportedly rescheduled her own itinerary to be at his side in Philly, campaign aides tell the NY Times the candidate thinks it could be one of the most important speeches of his presidential candidacy.
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Tucker Carlson on MSNBC is leading the charge to prove Barack Obama heard the sound bites extracted from Jeremiah Wright's corpus of speeches and sermons. Most of his colleagues agree Barack must have heard them.
Dear Tucker, let me lead you through the reasons why Barack Obama did not hear these particular statements. REASON ONE: The statements that have to do with Barack are statements he would have heard but did not, because in all probability he was out campaigning, but even more because Wright would not have said them when Barack was present. REASON TWO: In the case of the post-9/11 words reason one above might pertain, but I am prepared to accept Barack's word.REASON THREE: Barack knew the whole man and the whole church and this was about 1/1000th of the sum total of what was conveyed there.Fortunately, tomorrow Tucker, Barack is laying out the entire history of his relationship with Wright and his thoughts on race. I am sure that Barack's credibility will not be in question after his speech, save by the Roger Ailes puppets on FOX.Take heart Tucker, in a year you will be applauding Barack as a President whose values are shockingly conservative.Send a Personal Email to Stephen C. Rose
This Response to Clinton Attacks on Barack Obama's Record on Military Contractors was posted today on the Obama Blog. It deserves the widest circulation as an example of the distortion and duplicity inherent in the Clinton campaign.
During her speech today, Senator Clinton launched a false attack on Senator Obama’s position on military contractors. Below is a statement in response as well as more information on Senator Clinton’s history on this issue.“Proving once again that she will say anything to win an election, Hillary Clinton is attacking Barack Obama on an issue where he has led and she did nothing until her campaign fell behind. Senator Clinton did nothing when the use of contractors was expanded in the Clinton Administration, she did nothing when Senator Obama sent a bill on contractor accountability to her committee, and after more than four years of war in Iraq she claimed to not even know contractors were unaccountable even though she sits on the Senate committee that oversees them. For all her talk of Day One, it took five years on the Armed Services Committee before Hillary Clinton decided that she was shocked to learn about contractors that were used by the Clinton Administration, and whose abuses were reported year after year after year during the Iraq War,” said Obama spokesman Dan Pfeiffer.Clinton Announced That She Was Cosponsoring Legislation To Ban The Use Of Blackwater And Other Private Military Firms In Iraq.Clinton announced that she has cosponsored legislation to ban the use of Blackwater and other private military companies in Iraq. "From this war's very beginning, this administration has permitted thousands of heavily-armed military contractors to march through Iraq without any law or court to rein them in or hold them accountable. These private security contractors have been reckless and have compromised our mission in Iraq. The time to show these contractors the door is long past due. We need to stop filling the coffers of contractors in Iraq, and make sure that armed personnel in Iraq are fully accountable to the U.S. government and follow the chain of command," said Senator Clinton. [Clinton release, 2/28/08]CLINTON CLAIMED SHE DIDN'T KNOW THAT BLACKWATER WAS GIVEN IMMUNITY FROM PROSECUTIONClinton Claimed That She Didn't Know About A Provision That Gave Blackwater Immunity From Prosecution In Iraq Because Of An Exemption Passed After The US Invasion. "Clinton was asked about a statement she made… when criticizing the Bush administration's conduct in Iraq. She said she hadn't known that Blackwater USA, the military contractor accused of killing more than a dozen Iraqi civilians last month, had immunity from prosecution in Iraq because of an exemption approved soon after the US invasion. 'Maybe I should have known about it; I did not know about it,' she said." [Boston Globe, 10/11/07]Barack Responds Today in PA2004: Clinton Attended The Armed Services Committee Meeting Where Wolfowitz Testified on The Immunity Of Contractors—She Even Commented. On April 20, 2004, Clinton was listed in attendance at an Armed Services Committee meeting in which Paul Wolfowitz spoke of Order No. 17 saying, "Further, we have Coalition Provisional Authority Order No. 17, I believe it is, that goes into more detail about the rights and privileges and immunities that pertain to foreign forces providing for security in Iraq." Clinton responded on the subject of the military's role following Iraqi sovereignty saying, "I think that this is a serious issue, because it's not only the possibility that the definition will take on a life of its own, causing all kinds of unintended consequences, but that in fact the earlier questions that the chairman raised about the rules of engagement for our military and the authority that they have following this period of sovereignty, however one defines it, I think are going to be very sticky. And then you throw into the mix all these private contractors running around, heavily armed, I think it becomes even more of a challenge." [Senate Armed Services Committee Meeting, 4/20/04]
Here's a short -- slightly revised -- note I posted today -- 15 March, 2008 -- on the Obama Blog.
For what it's worth, as they say.I was in Lincoln Park in 1968 when Daley's police broke up an impromptu worship service where I gave a brief talk. I was 32 at the time and a younger guy came forward and started railing at my relatively peaceful statements. A woman well over thirty stepped into the circle and addressed him -- Why don't you kill us now?Now all the people who were there are MUCH older or no longer with us. But what has changed? We managed to get Richard Nixon as we would not vote for Humphrey after Gene McCarthy was licked at the convention.Then:Politics became a win-win situation as Republicans and Democrats fed at the same lobbying trough in DC.We are now paying the price of a politics that has filled our jails to overflowing, created a mortgage bubble that can drain everyone of their "wealth" and earned an international reputation that is execrable. In this sense Jeremiah Wright was more correct than he knew.But I know also, from my own days at Union Theological Seminary and my familiarity with many things related to American churches and politics, that that Wright's "g-d damn" statement will not be properly seen as a prophetic denunciation, but as a simple and mindless curse. And that that will sit with the populace -- just as the swiftboat and willie horton stuff did. We are in many respects a know-nothing people.The only antidote is, as Barack says, to get past it. If we get past it we win. If not our time is not yet. It is our effort and our present character that will tell.Finally in the matter of crossovers -- there are three reasons Republicans cross over and we would need more precise polling to know which is the main one. 1. To help Hillary be the nominee and beat her in the general election. 2. To help Hillary be the nominee and then work for an "unbeatable" Clinton-Obama ticket and 3. to support Barack.Our biggest allies are the math, Barack's steadiness and the actual strength, scope and positive character and unity of our movement.
And oddly enough, despite the best efforts of Sean Hannity, Rupert Murdoch and all the others who wish to make a mountain out of a molehill, skewering Jeremiah Writght as a hater on the basis of selected excerpts from talks and sermons, the Obama campaign moves along. Superdelegates coming aboard. Delegates being added from California and Iowa. And ever more desperate efforts by the Clinton campaign to maintain their position as part of the wealthy establishment that want her to be President. The Obama forces know this is a battle and the battle is being waged with open eyes and with a degree of understanding and purpose that should make any who are undecided think about the Obama alternative.Send a Personal Email to Stephen C. Rose[Photo]
