I believe the issue of seating the Florida and Michigan delegates is now the only hope that the Clinton campaign has in dragging out the nomination past June 3.
I sent an email to most of the members of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee, which meets this Saturday (May 31st) to find a resolution to the issue of seating the Florida and Michigan delegations.
I've only had one reply so far (from an 'uncommitted' committee member), but it gives an insight into how the Committee may approach this issue and why MICHIGAN may be the biggest problem for the Obama campaign.
Basically the Committee member said that he will make a 'rules-driven decision', and he then went on to quote the relevant DNC rule (Rule 20 C.1.a) which says that states which schedule their primaries/caucuses too early will be sanctioned by losing 50% of their delegates. (Note: not 100% as was imposed on FL and MI a year ago.)
The rule also says that the superdelegates of the rogue states will be stripped of their votes completely, but this contradicts a 'higher' rule within the DNC's 'constitution' that says all state party members (ie. state party superdelegates) have the right to be seated (and vote) at the National Convention. I think resolving Florida should be straight-forward according to this rules-driven thinking - Clinton got 50% of the vote, Obama 33% and Edwards 14%. Since Edwards has endorsed Obama, we can add their % together, so Florida's pledged delegates (185) would be split in half and then allocated 50% to Clinton and 47% to Obama. I believe that Clinton has previously received the endorsement of a majority of the FL superdelegates (whatever that number is), but the bottom line for FL is that none of this makes a difference to the current outcome of Obama winning the nomination.However, applying the rule(s) to the Michigan situation is trickier, which the Committee member admitted, and I think this is where the real fight will be. Clinton got ~60% of the vote with ~40% going to Uncommitted. I've read that the Clinton camp is pushing for that 40% to remain uncommitted, ie. not allocated to Obama. That's where trouble lies for the Obama campaign, because if you do not give him any of the 'uncommitted' pledged delegates from MI, he may no longer have the majority of the pledged delegates when the last states vote on June 3 and FL and MI are added (with 50% of their delegates).
As most of you know, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee is meeting on May 31st to try and resolve the issue of seating the Florida and Michigan delegates.
I think they need to hear our voices on this! I know that the HRC campaign website is urging their supporters to contact committee members on this matter. You can contact the committee members below. Postal addresses and telephone numbers will be listed in a separate post. Clinton supporters Alexis Herman James Roosevelt, james_roosevelt@tufts-health.c om Hartina Flournay, tflourno@aft.org Donald Fowler, don@fowlercommunications.com Harold Ickes, hickes@ickesenright.com Alice Huffman Ben Johnson, ben.johnson@porternovelli.com Elaine Kamarck, Eric Kleinfeld, eric@rpum.com Mona Pasquil, monapasquil@hotmail.com Mame Reiley Gary Shay, gss1@aol.com Elizabeth Smith, Michael Steed, rmadison@paladincapgroup.com Obama supporters Martha Fuller Clark, martha@mfclark4nh.com Carol Fowler, carol@fowlercommunications.com Janice Griffin, Janicegriffin08@aol.com Thomas Hynes, thynes@chapman.com Allan Katz Sharon Stroschein Sarah Swisher, seiusarah@msn.com Everett Ward, everettward06@aol.com Uncommitted Donna Brazile, donna@brazileassociates.com Mark Brewer, mbrewer@mi-democrats.com Ralph Dawson, rcdawson@fulbright.com Yvonne Gates Alice Germond, germonda@dnc.org Jaime Gonzalez, Jr., no2855748@gmail.com David McDonald, david.mcdonald@klgates.com Jerome Wiley Segovia, phwiley@yahoo.com A more efficient approach might be to simply copy and paste all the email addresses (below) and send a single email, starting with "Dear DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee Member... " james_roosevelt@tufts-healt h.com, tflourno@aft.org, don@fowlercommunications.com, hickes@ickesenright.com, ben.johnson@porternovelli.com, eric@rpum.com, monapasquil@hotmail.com, gss1@aol.com, rmadison@paladincapgroup.com, martha@mfclark4nh.com, carol@fowlercommunications.com , Janicegriffin08@aol.com, thynes@chapman.com, seiusarah@msn.com, everettward06@aol.com, donna@brazileassociates.com, mbrewer@mi-democrats.com, rcdawson@fulbright.com, germonda@dnc.org, no2855748@gmail.com, david.mcdonald@klgates.com, phwiley@yahoo.com
The area code and prefix of telephone numbers enable you to identify the town in which the telephone is located. I’ve spent many hours on the internet down-loading this information for the major towns/cities in Indiana.
I’ve also down-loaded demographic data for Indiana (from the US Census in 2000) and analyzed it using the voting patterns in Pennsylvannia in order to estimate the percentage of the vote that would likely go to Obama in the major towns/cities in Indiana.
Finally, I organized all this information in a series of tables, which allows you to look-up the first part of a telephone number (e.g from the on-line phonebanking tool) and see what area you’re calling in Indiana and which candidate they are likely to favor (on average).
If you would like a copy of these tables, please email me at:
indiana4obama@googlemail.com
MARCH MADNESS!
To all visitors, new and regular, to this blog… if you’re thinking about making a donation to Senator’s Obama’s campaign, please do it through one of the fundraiser links below… that way YOU SCORE TWICE: Barack Obama gets the BASKET and one of the good folks below gets an ASSIST!
Please reach for your wallet right now, click on a link below, and help our team win!
The Top Ten List:
1. Here’s a Mama For Obama. She needs $4491 more to reach her goal, now $4476-$4471-$4461-$4351-$4326-$4276-$4256-$4241-$4191-$4166-$4141-$4116-$4106-$4096-$4071-$4046-$3996-$3971-$3951-$3926-$3876-$3861-$3836-$3586-$3576 (or 143 donations of $25)
http://my.barackobama.com/page/dashboard/public/gGxTf5
2. Here is Lisa From L.A. She needs $880 more…make that $870-$865-$855-$805-$795-$780-$770
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/LPHOPE
3. New To This has raised much of her $5,000 but still is lacking $1475-$1465-$1455-$1420-$1410-$1400-$1390
http://my.barackobama.com/page/dashboard/public/gGGkj4
4. Brenda from Richmond is looking for another $450-$440-$435-$415-$390-$365-$345
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/BrendaC
5. Mike met Adam_Philadelphia at a Philly Sweeps event that he organzied. Over 100 people working for Barack on the streets of Philly. While he's helping out there, can we help him here? $910-$860-$850-$805-$705-$680- $655-$630-$605-$555-$500-$475-$390-$345
http://my.barackobama.com/page/dashboard/public/gGxMyl
6. IManOBAMAmama has been VERY busy starting groups in PA and making calls. Can we help her make her goal while she’s busy on the ground? $980-$965-$915-890-$880-$830 to go.http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/SabraT
7. Jill helped another Obama friend raise over $800. Now she needs help. Can we give her some? $1665-$1655-$1665-$1645 to go.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/JewsForBarackPart2
8. Denise wrote, “A year ago I would have never imagined I'd be spending a Saturday making calls soliciting support for a political candidate. For that matter blogging, sign waving, or reading every word a health care plan… Can anyone can help out?” Well? $900-$875-$850 to go.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/dashboard/public/gGXbBx
9. Joe Ruwe lights up this blog every day. He always has words of encouragement. He’s looking for $905-$800-$775-$765-$740
http://my.barackobama.com/page/dashboard/public/gGJ3BS
10. Willie B writes: “If one has done it so can you, if no one has done it that one can be you”. He’s looking for $1000-$855
http://my.barackobama.com/page/dashboard/view/public/gGNZmL
